LincPayandClaude Opus 5
81e66a9b57
A fresh deployment came up with a populated portfolio, an empty feeds screen and no alerts, because everything downstream of the seeder was an admin call whose order lived only in a runbook. POST /admin/bootstrap/demo now runs the six steps in dependency order and reports each one. The price simulator widens from the four commodities with no feed to every active basket pair, so price_z_score gets its three-year seasonal mean and TW-05 can fire with no DATAGOV_API_KEY present at all. Levels come from a per-crop table of ordinary mandi rates and the shape from the commodity group, because the group already encodes perishability - a vegetable moves on a weather event within days and a cereal does not, and flattening that would erase the one distinction the z-score exists to read. A pair holding any non-simulated row is skipped unless forced. That ordering is the safety property: run this after a real ingestion and it fills the gaps around the real series rather than over them. The orchestrator is deliberately not transactional. The seeder holds one transaction across its whole run, and when the machine slept mid-run nothing committed until morning while the console confidently served pre-seed state. A bootstrap generating three years of prices across every pair is long enough to hit exactly that, so each step commits alone and a failure in one leaves the others standing. Still not trainable, and coverage still says so. The seeder derives DPD from the band and the UPI simulator derives inflow from the same band, so a model fitted here recovers the seeder rule and reports fine metrics for doing it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
UdyamLinc
Predictive cash-flow intelligence and early warning for rural microenterprises. Team LincFusion · NABARD Hackathon
A dairy owner in Sehore does not default suddenly. Feed prices rise for six weeks, the milk rate holds flat, the margin thins, and the instalment that was comfortable in June is not comfortable in October. By the time a missed EMI appears on a bank's system, the cause is three months old and the cheap interventions have expired.
UdyamLinc watches the causes rather than the symptom: mandi prices, rainfall and heat against the thirty-year normal, the enterprise's own ledger, and the loan book — turned into features, scored, and surfaced as an alert an officer can act on while it is still early.
The institutional model
NABARD does not lend to enterprises. It refinances and supervises the banks that do — regional rural banks, cooperative banks and small finance banks. A platform that collapses those into one console implicitly casts the apex bank as the lender, which is wrong about the sector and wrong about who may see a borrower.
So there are three tiers, and they are not ranks of one permission:
| Tier | Who | Sees | Cannot |
|---|---|---|---|
| NABARD | apex | aggregates across every partner bank | read any borrower row |
| Bank | RRB / cooperative / SFB | its own book in full | see another bank's book |
| Enterprise | borrower | itself | see anything else |
The restriction on NABARD is the point, not a limitation. Because the apex tier can never reach a borrower, portfolio-wide early warning can be granted to it at all — a bank can tell its regulator, truthfully, that this platform does not expose its customers.
Cross-tenant requests return 404, identical to a fabricated id. A distinguishable 403 would confirm the id is real and on somebody's book.
Running it
Prerequisites — Java 17, Maven, Node 20+, PostgreSQL with a database named UdyamLinc_DEMO.
# Backend — port 8082, context path /api/v1/udyam
cd UdyamLinc-Backend
export DATAGOV_API_KEY=your_data_gov_in_key # optional; without it Agmarknet records SKIPPED
mvn spring-boot:run
# UI — port 5182
cd UdyamLinc-UI
npm install
npm run dev
Open http://localhost:5182. The schema and demo portfolio are created on first boot.
Demo credentials
Password for every console login: Udyam@123
| Username | Role | Lands on |
|---|---|---|
nabard.admin |
NABARD administrator | /nabard |
nabard.officer |
NABARD officer | /nabard |
mpgb.admin |
MP Gramin Bank — head office (44 borrowers) | /officer |
mpgb.officer |
MP Gramin — Sehore branch (12 borrowers) | /officer |
dccb.admin |
Sehore DCCB — head office (39 borrowers) | /officer |
dccb.officer |
Sehore DCCB — branch | /officer |
supervisor |
supervisor (MP Gramin) | /officer |
Enterprise PWA: any seeded enterprise id — e.g. MSME-4417 — with PIN 1234.
To see tenancy working, sign in as mpgb.admin, note a borrower id, sign out, sign in as dccb.admin and request that id directly. It returns "no such enterprise".
The demo path
POST /admin/ingestion/run # calls data.gov.in and Open-Meteo
POST /admin/features/compute # 14 derivations per enterprise
POST /admin/scoring/run # score, evaluate trip-wires, raise alerts
GET /admin/scoring/explain/MSME-4417
Then open /officer/feeds (provenance), /officer/rules (why each trip-wire did or did not fire) and /nabard (the supervisory view).
What is real, and what is not
Being straight about this is more useful than a demo that implies more than it has.
Real, on live data
- Agmarknet mandi prices via data.gov.in — 16,000 rows, four districts, verified against the live API
- Rainfall and heat from Open-Meteo, against a thirty-year normal
- 14 feature derivations, point-in-time correct on both
valid_for_dateandobserved_at - The rule engine, the staleness gate, and the score
- Manual entry, the loan-book upload and the tenancy model
Real, but computed without a model
- The P10/P50/P90 forecast is deterministic, not machine-learned — median monthly ledger position, margin drift, and a band that widens with the square root of the horizon. It sits behind a
ForecastStrategyseam, so the LightGBM quantile heads replace it as a configuration change.
Demo data
- The loan book and ledger are seeded. A real CBS extract is the deepest gap in the system: DPD history is the training label, and without it no model can be trained.
udyam.forecast.trust-seededdefaults totrue, which letsdscr_p10fall back to the seeder's forecast rows so the demo portfolio looks populated. SetUDYAM_TRUST_SEEDED_FORECASTS=falsefor any run whose alerts are meant to be believed — trip-wires firing drops from 34 to 5, and those 5 are real.
Not built
- Account Aggregator consent, so
upi_inflow_changeis null and TW-02 can never fire - A three-year price backfill, so
price_z_scoreis null and TW-05 cannot fire - NECC egg, dairy-federation milk and fodder feeds — no usable API exists, which is why manual entry does
Design decisions worth knowing
A feature that cannot be computed is stored as null with a reason, never skipped. NO_SIGNAL, NO_LEDGER, NO_CBS, NO_CONSENT, NO_FORECAST, INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY. "We did not know" and "we never looked" are different facts.
Trip-wires refuse to fire on stale data. A rule firing on a three-week-old price is worse than no rule. Each feature carries the age of the data that actually built it — not the district's newest row, which would let a month-old milk rate inherit yesterday's maize freshness.
A fired trip-wire escalates the band but never rewrites the score. They answer different questions — how stressed is this enterprise, and has a specific agreed line been crossed — and an audit needs both.
Missing inputs widen the forecast band; they never lower its centre. A pessimistic P50 built on ignorance would manufacture breaches.
Nothing is written until someone has seen what will be. Uploads stage a preview reporting what will land, what was rejected and why, and what will overwrite an existing value.
No PII by schema, not by policy. enterprise holds no name, phone, Aadhaar or account number, and a loan-book upload whose headers carry one is refused whole.
Layout
UdyamLinc-Backend/ Spring Boot 4 · Java 17 · Postgres
apex/ NABARD aggregates — no endpoint returns a borrower
institution/ Institution, Branch — the tenancy key
security/ JWT, TenantContext
ingestion/ Agmarknet, Open-Meteo, scheduler
features/ Feature store and the 14 derivations
rules/ risk/ SpEL trip-wires, scoring and forecast strategies
manualentry/ Upload, preview, commit
ARCHITECTURE.md The build contract — read this first
API-SPEC.md Endpoint reference
UdyamLinc-UI/ Vite · React 19 · TypeScript
features/nabard/ Apex portal
features/officer/ Bank console
features/enterprise/ Enterprise PWA, offline, Hindi-first
ARCHITECTURE.md is the build contract and supersedes any other plan.
Attribution
- Mandi prices — data.gov.in Open Government Data platform, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare
- Rainfall and temperature — Open-Meteo reanalysis archive
- State boundaries — DataMeet India community (datameet/maps), CC BY 4.0. Simplified for display and not an authoritative depiction of any boundary; the source predates the 2019 reorganisation, so Ladakh is drawn within Jammu and Kashmir.
The data.gov.in API key is read from the environment and is never committed. It is redacted before any URL reaches the audit log.